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Tax Committee Update
February 26, 2010

Staff Contact: Ken Pokalsky

Draft Article 9A/32 Integration Bill

We just received the draft 9A/32 bill text from the Department of Taxation and Finance. The draft bill text and bill summary are available on our web site. 

In distributing this draft bill, the Department pointed out that:

Legislative Revenue Forecasts

Both the state Senate and Assembly released their respective economic and revenue projections for the new fiscal year this week.  While the Administration, Senate and Assembly all project renewed economic growth and overall increases in state tax revenues compared with the current year, both the Senate and Assembly projected Fiscal 2011 revenues below the levels forecasted by the Division of the Budget, interjecting additional uncertainty into the budget negotiation process.

The Assembly projects “all funds” tax revenues for the FY 2011, at $62.6 billion, to be $1.2 billion below the level forecasted by the Executive Budget.  The Senate's numbers are just $300 million below the Administration's forecast.

All three forecasts project a rebound in personal income growth in the 4 percent range, increases in personal income tax revenues (projections range from 5.8 percent to 9 percent), and significant increases in sales tax revenues of more than 10 percent.

All three also forecast another year of declining business tax receipts, but differ sharply on the components. The Executive and Senate are projecting $300 million, or nearly 10 percent, increase in corporate franchise tax revenues, while the Assembly projects a 2.5 percent decline.  All three project significant declines in bank tax revenues, with falloffs projected at between 15 and 20 percent.

Detailed comparisons of these projections are provided in the tables below.

Access to the Senate's economic and revenue forecasts is available here.

Access to the Assembly's revenue and economic projections is available here.

Staff contact: ken.pokalsky@bcnys.org

CALENDAR YEAR 2010 EONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS (% CHANGE)

 

Exec Budget
Senate
Assembly
Real GDP
2.8
2.7
2.9
GSP  
4.0
 
NY Personal Income
3.8
4.4
4.0
NY Employment
-0.4
-0.7
-0.4
Retail sales  
6.2
 
Unemployment Rate
9.2%
8.9%
 

REVENUE PROJECTIONS ($ MILLIONS)


ALL TAXES

FY 2010
FY 2011
Exec Budget
FY 2011
Senate
FY 2011
Assembly
PIT
$34,380
$37,443
$37,136
$36,389
Sales/Use
13,994
15,563
15,577
15,424
Business
7,823
7,760
7,796
7,578
Other
1,408
1,425
1,421
1,583
Payroll
1,173
1,577
1,544
1,588
Total
58,778
63,768
63,474
62,562
BUSINESS TAXES  

 

 

 

9-A
2,961
3,277
3,304
2,885
9
968
922
934
925
Insurance
1,412
1,400
1,407
1,511
Bank
1,363
1,076
1,055
1,172
Petroleum
1,119
1,085
1,096
1,085

PROJECTED CHANGE ($ million)


ALL TAXES
FY 2011
Exec Budget
FY 2011
Senate
FY 2011
Assembly
PIT
$3,063
$2,756
$2,009
Sales/Use
$1,569
$1,583
$1,430
Business
($63)
($27)
$245)
Other
$17
$13
$175
Payroll
$404
$371
$415
Total
$4,990
$4,696
3,784
BUSINESS TAXES
9-A
$316
$343
($76)
9
($46)
($34)
($43)
Insurance
($12)
($5)
$99
Bank
($287)
($308)
($191)
Petroleum
($34)
($23)
($34)

PROJECTED % CHANGE


ALL TAXES
FY 2011
Exec Budget
FY 2011
Senate
FY 2011
Assembly
PIT
8.91%
8.02%
5.84%
Sales/Use
11.21%
11.31%
10.22%
Business
-0.81%
-0.35%
-3.13%
Other
1.21%
0.92%
12.43%
Payroll
34.44%
31.63%
35.38%
Total
8.49%
7.99%
6.44%
BUSINESS TAXES
9-A
10.67%
11.58%
-2.57%
9
-4.75%
-3.51%
-4.44%
Insurance
-0.85%
-0.35%
7.01%
Bank
-21.06%
-22.60%
-14.01%
Petroleum
-3.04%
-2.06%
-3.04%